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2022 was a rollercoaster for GPU prices. Prices started high, with the crypto boom on the verge of collapse, crashed mid-year, and now GPU prices are stable at much more reasonable costs. Or, at least, compared to the massively inflated prices we’ve seen during the GPU shortage.
We’re not in another GPU shortage, but I’ve still received a handful of messages from readers concerned about how expensive GPUs are right now. As we begin 2023, I wanted to look at the current state of the GPU market and where it might be headed, but more importantly, decipher the difference between high GPU prices and a true shortage.
There is no shortage of GPUs here
Jacob Roach / Digital Trends
In September, I boldly claimed that it was The RTX 4090 wouldn’t cause a new GPU shortage. If you’ve tried to get your hands on an RTX 4090 since launch, I’m sure you can imagine the proverbial egg on my face. While I stand by that original statement, there are some nuances to it, especially months after the RTX 4090 hit store shelves.
Let’s start with the RTX 4090. It’s been out of stock since launch, at least at major retailers like Newegg and Micro Center. You can still buy a new card from marketplaces like Newegg or Amazon, but you’ll spend at least around $2,200. Many tickets climb above $2,500.
We have a lot of evidence to suggest that we are not short of GPUs
The used market is not much better either. $2,000 is the minimum on eBay if you get a deal, but again, you’ll be spending $2,200 for the vast majority of cards, and in some cases even more than $2,500. It looks a lot like lack of GPU. The last generation RTX 3090 sold for $1,500 ($100 less than the RTX 4090), and at the peak of the shortage it cost around $2,500.
But we have a lot of evidence that points in the other direction. For starters, Nvidia’s RTX 4080 saw poor sales. Scalpers can’t sell them at a higher price on eBay, and some claim they’ve tried to return the cards en masse without success. According to Wccftech’s Hassan Mujtaba, Nvidia has shipped more than four times as many RTX 4090s as RTX 4080s.
NVIDIA 4080 shipping units:
🟢30,000
NVIDIA 4090 shipping units:
🟢130,000
Total RTX 40 shipping units:
🟢160,000
NVIDIA’s 4090 was pretty much a sell-out at launch.
Dealers still have the 4080 in stock. 😶🌫️😶🌫️
— Hassan Mujtaba (@hms1193) November 19, 2022
Even if those numbers are wrong, you need look no further than the inventory of RTX 4080 graphics cards. At the time of this writing, Newegg had six models in stock at list price. And there are more than 30 cards available in two models at my local Micro Center alone. Even formidable GPUs like the last-gen RX 6500 XT sold out within hours during the GPU shortage, but the RTX 4080 is available almost two months after its release.
The same goes for AMD’s recently launched RX 7900 XT, though not the much more popular RX 7900 XTX. If you’re shopping for the latest generation cards, you can find any RTX series 30 or RX 6000 graphics card available at major retailers.
The situation we are in right now is not a lack of GPUs. If you think back to the past few years, all it was out of stock and marked on the used market. This case is unique to the RTX 4090 and possibly the RX 7900 XTX, but we’re still too close to AMD’s launch to tell.
High GPU prices are another matter
Jacob Roach / Digital Trends
We’re not in another GPU shortage, but the effects of one are still there. High GPU prices still reign supreme. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang received a lot of criticism for that statement Falling GPU prices were a thing of the past, and rightfully so. But it was an oddly prophetic statement in retrospect.
We’ve covered the RTX 4090, but even the apparently unpopular RTX 4080 is a lot more expensive than it should be. You can find one model, the PNY XLR8 Gaming Verto, retailing for $1,200. Every other card available sells for $1,300 or more. Board partner cards are always more expensive than retail, but $100-$200 more after poor sales and an already high MSRP? That’s hard to justify.
Last generation options are up. The RTX 3080, which should retail for $700, starts at around $900 despite being over two years old. Down the line, Nvidia’s prices are better. The RTX 3060 Ti is about $50 more than retail, as is the RTX 3060, and the RTX 3070 Ti is $100 more than retail. However, it is important to remember the age of these cards. They are the last generation and should be sold for them less from the current retail price.
Jacob Roach / Digital Trends
These prices are a unique situation for Nvidia, and AMD’s GPUs provide a lot of context for where GPU prices should be. AMD’s RX 6950 XT debuted at $1,100, but you can now find in-stock models for around $800. Nvidia’s competing RTX 3090 Ti is available in refurbished capacity for around $1,200. That’s a decent discount from that card’s $2,000 list price, but it’s also the same price Nvidia announced back in August 2022.
Similarly, AMD’s RX 6650 XT is $50 to $100 off list price, and the RX 6750 XT (which competes with Nvidia’s RTX 3070 Ti) is up to $150 off list price. The only exception here is the RX 6800 XT, which like the RTX 3080 sells for a much higher price than list (about $200 above retail for both AMD and Nvidia).
Jacob Roach / Digital Trends
Back in August, when Nvidia said it had “excess inventory” of RTX 30 series GPUs, the writing was already on the wall. Nvidia’s prices are much more expensive this generation compared to the previous one. The RTX 4080 is $500 more expensive than the card it replaces, and rumor has it that the RTX 4070 Ti could be similarly more expensive than the last-gen RTX 3070 Ti. With much higher prices, Nvidia doesn’t have to compete with its last-gen offerings and can continue to sell at or above list price.
Compare that to what AMD is doing. The RX 7900 XTX and RX 7900 XT occupy the space occupied by the flagship models of the last generation, lowering the prices. However, let’s not be naive. While it’s true that AMD’s steady pricing is driving down the price of last-gen options, Nvidia holds nearly 90% of the desktop GPU market. AMD needs lower prices to stay competitive. Nvidia doesn’t.
GPU Outlook for 2023
Image used with permission of the copyright holder
I expect to see a big drop in GPU prices during 2023, for two reasons. The first is the RTX 4080. Customers voted with their wallets and clearly showed that the price of that card is unacceptable, and I don’t believe that Nvidia will continue to release cards with similar margins if they continue to record poor sales.
The second reason is that we have passed the main stage. During 2023, AMD and Nvidia will release GPUs further down their product lines, and that’s when we’ll start to see the prices of current and last generation GPUs really compete. AMD has already put some pressure on Nvidia with its RX 7900 XTX which also goes up against the RTX 4080. In the $300-$500 price range, a similarly competitive GPU from AMD would force Nvidia to do so.
The real competition is in the mid-range where a difference of $50 or $100 is enough to make a buying decision. 2023 should bring these mid-range cards, and hopefully then the high GPU prices we’re seeing now will begin to fade. However, we got rid of the lack of GPU.
This article is part of ReSpec – an ongoing bi-weekly column featuring discussions, tips and in-depth reports on the technology behind PC gaming.
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Categories: GAMING
Source: newstars.edu.vn
Links: We’re not in a GPU shortage, but it sure feels like one – Tekmonk Bio, We’re not in a GPU shortage, but it sure feels like one – Kungfutv, We’re not in a GPU shortage, but it sure feels like one – Blogtomoney
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